A Sliver of Hope for the eBike in America

August 1st, 2010

A Sliver of Hope for the eBike in America
by Ami Cholia on Friday, July 23, 2010 at 10:30 AM

Given the density of messengers and delivery guys in New York City, it’s a wonder one doesn’t seen a plethora of ebikes — motorized bikes — around. The bike would allow the riders to make several more trips in an hour, and give them some extra cash at the end of the day.

Even if I don’t own one, I am a complete supporter of the ebike. And honestly, the fact that it reaches out to a whole new demographic in this country that has a hard time using bikes for transportation, makes it worth it for me. And one more bike out there means one less car on the road.

The ebike, which runs on an electric motor and allows riders to pedal at their own convenience, travels up to 20 mph and sells between $500 and $14,000 (the newer lithium battery ones vs. the older acid battery bikes tend to run more expensive but are far more durable). They weigh about 40 lbs to 65 lbs, and though heavier than what you’re probably used to riding, once you try it (I test rode several the other day) you probably will be a convert – especially if you have to ride over 10 miles to work each day.

22 million bikes are predicted to be on Chinese roads and Europe’s all over the battery powered machine. Can we hope to catch up to that number here in the U.S.? The market is sure opening up. Best Buy began selling electric bikes and scooters in 19 of its stores on the West Coast, last June. Wal-Mart already sells ebikes in more than 400 stores. Lexus and Volkswagen recently launched fancier versions of the bike and the largest U.S. bike manufacturer, Trek, rolled out a line of electric bikes late last year. The company has so far gotten 500 of its 2,300 U.S. dealers to commit to carrying the bikes.

Given its relative ease of use, why then is the ebike not making more headway here? For one, bike culture in America is rooted in recreation. Less than 0.6 percent of the population uses the bike for transportation.

In China, where cycling is more essential, most riders moved to ebikes from bicycles to make their transportation needs easier. In North America, a buyer is expected to give up the comfort of their car and switch to the ebike, which is a much harder transition to make. Beyond that, the ebike is seen as a lazy man’s tool. When I posted a Facebook status asking for contact information for anyone who rode an ebike, a friend’s instant response was “I don’t know anyone that lazy.” Purists hate on ebikes because they believe it takes away from the nature of the sport. “Those aren’t bikes,” is the common refrain. As a result, they often intimidate first-time riders.

Most importantly, though, people are afraid of getting on their bikes because they don’t want to deal with the stresses of riding in fast-moving traffic. And it wouldn’t be much different on an ebike.

“Protected bike lanes seem to put a lot of riders at ease, and overall, I think better bicycle infrastructure is what will get more people to ride, not ebikes,” said Don Knapp, an avid biker and communications director for ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability. Lizzi added, “I’ve heard several people tell me that they are more likely to use their bikes if they felt safer on the road. We need more designated bike lanes if this is really going to work.”

“When cars are traveling at more than 35 and there are no bike lanes. When drivers aren’t paying attention — texting or doing something. Most people just don’t think they can compete, even if they’re going 20 mph.”

The U.S. has just spent $1.5 billion on biking infrastructure so that should be a step in the right direction – given that that’s more money being spent on it the past 20 years combined, Lizzi said.

“The car dominates our city planning. Not only at the local level but at the federal level,” said Matt Roney, from the Earth Planning Institute.

“But things are changing. NYC itself has put in 100s of bike planes through the PlaNYC project. There’s going to be lag time with any new developments. Once people start feeling safe on the road. Once the facilities have been built, drivers will get more used to seeing riders. Motorists will start to look out for cyclists, like they do in cities like Portland.”

Cebular does think the efforts have started to pay off (though he does admit it’s going to be a while before we see a full-fledged conversion.)

“We’ve had about a 40 percent increase almost every year since we started, outside of last year when the recession hit everybody really hard,” he said.

“When oil prices fell, more and more people started using the ebike as a real option. Gas prices in Europe have been high for a long time and that’s got more people thinking about the environment and alternative forms of transportation. If gas prices are higher – people finally sit and ask themselves, do we really need a second or third car. An electric bike pays for itself.”

While core customers initially seemed to be baby boomers (which at about 79 million isn’t a shabby demographic), who haven’t ridden for a long time, or have health problems, that changed in 2008 when gas prices went up. The young urban dweller finally seemed to be catching on.

We need to realize that while the technology is there – the only way true change is really going to take place is policy. A sweeping change can only occur when prices from top to bottom reflect the true cost of our unsustainable habits. The electric bike — or car, for that matter — will only really make any headway in our markets when the price of fossil fuels aren’t subsidized anymore and when enough infrastructure is set up to make the wrongs right.

Given that most trips are less than 3 miles around our house, the least we can do is attempt to pedal along. You’ll save money on gas and on your gym membership.

For more information, go to http://www.pedegoelectricbikes.com

Electric Bicycles Are The Newest Fad

July 22nd, 2010

Author: Beth Guide
Electric bicycles are the newest craze in the ever-growing green movement. When the bicycle was invented, it was probably unimaginable to think that one day they would be used as an automatic mode of transportation in our modern society. Investing in an electric bicycle is probably one of the easiest and self-satisfying trends coming about.

For many people, contributing to a cleaner environment is a concern that is becoming front and center in their day-to-day lives as well as during times of recreation and adventure. These bicycles are a great way to take personal responsibility and rev up for a more environmentally friendly mode of transportation.

Some might say that an electric bicycle is the product of combining the components of a motorcycle and those of a standard bicycle with pedals. This is a great way to think about their structure and design. These bicycles can vary by design and the way they are constructed. Some are constructed with the electric design from the beginning, whereas, others are simply bicycles that have been assembled with an electric motor after their original construction to make the original pedal-powered bicycle into an electric one.

On the other hand, even though an electric bicycle is modernized to become an effortless way to ride a bike, it does not necessarily mean it can only be used as a motorized mode of transportation. Many designs offer a variety of different ways to enjoy them. Some are designed to be used primarily as a motorized bicycle. Many, however, include the option of using the foot pedals on the occasion the motor has difficulty, the rider wants to get a manual workout, or perhaps go on a family ride with other members of the family that do not have an electric bicycle.

Thus, the bicycle can remain completely usable as a regular bicycle with the option to turn into a hybrid if needed. The possibilities for using a modern motorized bicycle are endless. While some might decide to jump on the bandwagon to become more environmentally friendly, others use these bicycles for more practical purposes such as saving money on gas and parking, traveling a further distance with less physical effort, and maneuvering around busy places quickly. For example, college campuses are being flooded with these electric bicycles because they are so easy to use as well as easy to park. With the money spent to purchase an electric bicycle, one could easily save on parking permits as well as perhaps a few parking tickets.

Overall, electric bicycles are definitely one of the leading products in the green movement sweeping across the country. Bike riding has always been a favorite pastime for many people as well as a great way to exercise, travel, and spend time. Now that there is an option to add a motor and take advantage of one of these innovative bicycles, the art of riding has been revolutionized into an option that is suitable for so many more people to take advantage of.

LANCE Armstrong stunned the cycling world yesterday by announcing he is going electric – pedaling is for youngsters

June 29th, 2010

Just kidding…here is the real story:

LANCE Armstrong stunned the cycling world yesterday by announcing his 13th appearance in the Tour de France, which starts in Rotterdam on Saturday, will be his last.

“And yes, this will be final Tour de France. It’s been a great ride. Looking forward to three great weeks,” the 38-year-old Texan wrote on his Twitter site.

His tweet included several mistakes Armstrong then re-tweeted, “Doh, sorry, meant ‘my’ final Tour”.

The Promise of Electric Bikes

June 27th, 2010

Electric bikes are a new and promising alternative form of urban transportation.

They provide all the advantages of a regular bicycle: fun exercise, free parking, zero emissions, and freedom from gridlock, while eliminating one of the bicycle’s more serious drawbacks, lack of power.

In most situations in the city, riding an electric bike will be faster and cheaper than either car or public transit.

Exercise Optional

June 26th, 2010

For at least 100 years, the best, if not the most interesting, way to power a street vehicle is with an electric motor. The electric motor is a much older invention than the gasoline engine and was already in a pretty advanced state of development by the time Otto and Benz came along with their internal combustion and spoiled everything in the emerging electric universe.

At the beginning of the last century, the Baker Electric was a top-seller, revered for its ease of operation, silence and cleanliness, and perhaps because it was reassuringly styled like an Edwardian garden gazebo. I believe Thomas Edison had one; Jay Leno still does, although his was second-hand.

The issue then was the storage of electricity which has recently been solved.  It seems that soon, very soon, people will be driving rechargeable electric cars.

But right now, electric bikes are going mainstream.  You may heard of or seen a Pedego Electric Bike.  It’s very fashionable and looks very comfortable which is probably why it is suitably named, the Comfort Cruiser.

It, at its core, is like any other bicycle. It has pedals, six gears, nice disc brakes and an enclosed chain. The electric motor is mounted in the rear hub and triggered by a half throttle on the right handlebar.  The removable battery is cleverly attached on an integrated rear rack and recharged via a small socket concealed under the handle

What, some ask, is the point of a bicycle you don’t have to pedal? None, if you want one for exercise. What is the point of your car, when you could be cycling?

The idea behind the Pedego is that you do pedal, and then call on the electric motor for tiresome hills or strong headwinds. Pedego goes faster under electric power.

Pedego is a great bike that will save money on gas,  have fun riding and throw in some exercise as desired.

Ebike – The Electric Cruiser Bike

June 25th, 2010

June 24th, 2010
Ebike – The Electric Cruiser Bike
Posted by brendablake in Recumbent+exercise+bike Articles

Just like non-powered bikes, ebikes come in a wide array of shapes, sizes and styles. You can find street bikes, mountain bikes and all kinds of frames all fitted out for extended range and power with an electric motor system, but when it comes to leisurely errands around town, nothing is as comfortable and effective as a cruiser.

Cruiser frames are sometimes also referred to as European style bikes as they are very popular in the streets of many countries in Europe as a primary mode of transportation.  They are very solid and can carry a lot of weight, all while allowing the rider to sit at a comfortable upright angle, much the same as driving a car.
Electric motor assisted cruiser bikes, or ebikes, are available from a wide array of brands and like all ebikes, each model comes with some slightly different features. That said, most of these cruiser ebikes tend to have speeds of up to fifteen miles an hour when running on full electric power with no pedal assist; certainly more than fast enough to get you to and from the grocery store or the post office. Most current batteries will get you up to about twenty five miles per charge, and some ebikes have the ability to carry multiple batteries so you can swap them out mid-trip and extend your range before charging them up. These high capacity batteries usually charge in four to six hours, and can be charged either with the use of a special battery charger or by plugging your bikedirectly into the power outlet in your wall.

Electric cruiser bikes have several different modes that they can be operated in. There is fully powered mode, where you do not pedal at all and the bike‘s electric motor does all the heavy lifting. This is easy on the legs but rather harder on the battery. If you want to get a little exercise and extend the life of your battery, there is also the pedal assist mode, which gives you an extra boost as you pedal, effectively making you a more powerful biker. Many models also have some in between modes, giving you more or less power as you need it.
Pre-made cruiser style ebikes come mostly or completely assembles already as opposed to their conversion kit cousins, meaning the buyer will not have to work hard to get on the road. They are easy to operate and maintain, and do not require any sort of special license to drive them. They also provide a very smooth, comfortable ride.

All in all, if you are considering an ebike as your in town errand running, grocery getting, leisurely commuter, a cruiser style frame is a good way to go.

First Patented in 1895 – The History of the Electric Bike

June 19th, 2010

A great article!

http://momentumplanet.com/articles/e-volution-the-age-of-the-electric-bike/page-3.html

In 1895, Ogden Bolton Jr. was issued US patent number 552,271 for a new and useful improvement in “electrical bicycles” in which the entire motor assembly was tidily built into the rear wheel. With a battery pack secured in the triangle frame and throttle wires going up to the handlebar, the patent diagrams bear uncanny resemblance to the modern hub motor electric bike. Another patent from 1899 shows a friction roller drive on a pedal bicycle that looks just like the ZAP kits from the 1990s. USPTO 656,323 from 1897 shows an electric bicycle where the motor drives the pedal cranks, what we call a ‘mid-drive’ today. For active members of the current e-bike community, it’s a bit surprising to find out that what feels like such a recent idea could have a history so old.
At the end of the 1800s, the heyday of bicycle inventions in the West gave way to a century-long love affair with the automobile and all the effects of that infatuation. In an era when progress meant freeways, when petroleum supplies were unlimited, and bicycles were mostly seen as weekend recreation, it would have been hard to pitch an electric bike as some kind of ground breaking idea. That is the problem that Felicio Sadalla, an industrial engineer and garage inventor from Sao Paulo faced three decades ago. In 1975 he cobbled together a DC motor from a truck radiator, a pile of nickel cadmium batteries salvaged from an airplane scrap yard and an old red two-wheeler to build what may have been Brazil’s first e-bike.
Felicio felt that bicycles were a much more sensible a means of transportation than the prevailing automobile and that the electric assist could maintain that efficiency with a more widespread appeal. But the timing wasn’t right in 1975 for his idea to have any traction. Two years later the parts for his first e-bike were back in the scrapyard. Though Felicio went on to work with electric and then early hybrid cars, the appeal of a simple electric bicycle lingered in the back of his head as concept whose time may one day come.
It was in Japan that electric bicycles first reached any kind of mainstream acceptance. In the mid 1990s some 10-20 percent of the bicycle market was electric assist. But the numbers plateaued, as Japanese e-bikes were said to be designed for and used almost entirely by “old people and housewives,” and had limited appeal to commuters as a whole. A few years later China showed the world just what significant reach electric bicycles can have. The numbers there exploded exponentially, from several hundred thousand at the start of this century to 100-120 million today.
E-bikes in China outsell cars four to one. Their sudden popularity has confounded and stumped planners and traffic engineers trying to pave the way for China to follow in America’s tracks and become the next automobile powerhouse. For the Chinese, the e-bike (“Battery Bike” would be the more literal translation) is really an electric scooter. It’s a step above the bicycle when you can’t afford a car, and in a large nation rapidly rising from a peasant country to a superpower, this describes a lot of people.

Back in America, the motivation for people to embrace e-bikes is quite different; many of the characters currently shaping the electric bicycle scene got started in the early 1990s, well before the Chinese phenomenon. One early adopter was Morgan Giddings, who was pursuing a master’s degree in computer science at the University of Wisconsin in 1993, when she learned of a Californian company called Zero Air Pollution vehicles, better known as ZAP.
Giddings had been a bicycle commuter for the most part, but admits that with a long 10-mile commute she “wasn’t necessarily motivated to bike each day.” ZAP sold a conversion kit that used a friction roller to rub against and spin the back tire, and although this system had plenty of limitations (roller slippage in the rain, only two speed throttle and lots of drag from the motor), it certainly convinced Morgan of the immense practicality of this idea. “It got me on the bike way more often; that was the key thing.”
Giddings took her kit through years of use, including maintenance and upgrades. Many people thought her e-bike was pretty neat, but reception from bicycle stores was cool at best. It was this negative attitude from the cycling establishment that largely convinced her to toy with a different career path from academics and bio-informatics.
In 2007 Giddings and her partner Elise opened Cycle9, an electric and cargo bike specialty shop in North Carolina. They wanted to create a space where people could try out and experience e-bikes without the need to be tech savvy and source all the parts on the Internet. They firmly believe the benefits of the electric assist will help overcome challenges to bicycle adoption in the US.
Almost anyone who has spent time on the online e-bike forums, especially in the early 2000s, will have heard or come across Joshua Goldberg, one of the most prolific posters and an enigmatic character who has been scheming and dealing in e-bike parts from his Toronto apartment for two decades now.
Goldberg is a recumbent bicycle devotee and self-proclaimed mechanical klutz, but that didn’t stop him. In the late 1980s he rigged up a two horsepower Bosch electric motor to spin the front wheel of his Peugeot to help him bike with his daughter in a trailer.
His motivation was, he said, part laziness and, in a larger part, dislike of cars in general, having lost several close family members to motor vehicle accidents. The recumbent bicycle with an electric assist attached just made sense. So when commercial kits such as the ZAP and Currie came out in the 1990s, Goldberg became a key Canadian dealer, serving mostly recumbent riders.
It’s not too surprising that recumbent bicycle riders made up a disproportionate number of early experimenters in electric assist technology. It’s a community already used to thinking outside the box and it seems intuitive that they would pursue what are clearly superior technologies, regardless of what was happening in the mainstream culture. But even within this niche community, the idea of an electric motor helping a bike created divisions: some embraced it while others derided the whole concept of motorized assistance as akin to cheating or riding a motorbike.
The constant squabble on the recumbent forums led Goldberg to found a new site, the Yahoo “Power-Assist” group, where all topics related to electric drives on bikes and trikes were welcome. This flourished, and for many years was the central hub of the do-it-yourself electric bike movement. With few sources for pre-built e-bikes in North America, most people who caught wind of the idea found out about the availability of kits through the Internet and got drawn into this community.
For some, getting one’s hands dirty by refitting and modifying their bicycle to fit a motor and battery was part of the process since there was no easy off-the-shelf fix. For others, the whole process of building a homemade e-bike was an obsession in and of itself.
For Barrie Wilkinson, a retired mechanical engineering professor living in Westbank, BC, the electric bicycle has become “a perfect retirement hobby.” He first acquired a turn-key imported e-bike in 2004, thinking that this might just be the ticket for the 72-year-old former smoker with arthritis to stay active and regain the enjoyment of cycling.
Wilkinson’s turn-key e-bike had many shortcomings, but it worked well enough to convince him that the electric bike had potential, and that given some time in his garage workshop he could probably make something significantly better. Six years later, Wilkinson has built over half a dozen different conversions, experimenting with hub motors, crank drives and evolving from lead acid to NiMH to lithium battery packs as newer technologies became available.
The presence of an active, passionate and helpful online community has been key for people like Wilkinson to take on this kind of project. “There’s no way” he would have undertaken these e-bike projects without the support and guidance of the enthusiasts on the web, he said. While the original Power-Assist Yahoo group lives on, the community today is mostly centered on a web forum at endless-sphere.com.
With over 13,000 topic threads and some 221,000 posts, endless-sphere.com has become an exciting hub of activity for the e-bike movement. From instructions on how to build powerful e-bike packs from hacked apart powertool batteries, to challenges for making the lightest, the most powerful, the fastest or even the cheapest e-bike, it is a place that feels like a new frontier in the Wild West. Characters such as Stephane Melacon (aka, DoctorBass) tows a school bus with his souped-up e-bike. Others are modifying super-efficient radio-controlled airplane motors to run their e-bikes with just a few pounds of additional weight.
Boundaries of technology and innovation are being pushed not by well-funded research labs or big corporations, but by hundreds of individuals who see endless possibilities for pedal-assist electric bikes to transform their lives and maybe the world around them.
It’s unlikely that the early electric bike inventors of the late 1800s saw their creation as some kind of clean, minimalistic and efficient alternative to a heavy automobile. Traffic congestion, greenhouse gasses, asthma, sprawling suburbs and epidemic obesity weren’t in anyone’s rear-view mirror, and so the motor on an early bicycle was just a blip in the march of technological progress and industrialization. But for people like Felicio Sadalla who understood the potential from different angle, there must be some delight in seeing the world finally catching up to this idea. In 2009, Brazil released its first production run of locally-made e-bikes, and Sadalla was honoured with an award and a gift of 10 modern e-bikes from an insurance company for having directed them to this idea.
E-bikes have achieved remarkable success in Europe over the past two years, with over a million units on the road, and out here in North America, a community is hard at work trying to show us what the future may have in store.

http://momentumplanet.com/articles/e-volution-the-age-of-the-electric-bike/page-3.html

Gary Fisher Interview – Praises Electric Bikes. Will Lance Armstong be next

June 10th, 2010

Legendary Gary Fisher is considered one of the inventors of the modern mountain bike.
This recent interview is highly favorable toward electric bikes. Lance – care to weigh in?

http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid1220835370?bctid=41901911001

Electric Bike Laws-Illinois Amendments

June 7th, 2010

“Low Speed Electric Bike”
Effective Date: 01/01/10
Public Act: 96-0125 Senate Bill: 0236
Synopsis:
Amends the Illinois Vehicle Code. Defines a low-speed electric bicycle as a 2 or 3-wheeled device with fully operable pedals and an electric motor of less than 750 watts (one horsepower), whose maximum speed on a paved level surface, when powered solely by such a motor while ridden by an operator who weighs 170 pounds, is less than 20 miles per hour. Excludes low-speed electric bicycles from the definition of “motor vehicle”. Prohibits operation of a low-speed electric bicycle at a speed greater than 20 miles per hour upon any highway, street, or roadway. Prohibits operation of a low-speed electric bicycle on a sidewalk. Provides that, except as otherwise provided, the provisions of the Article of the Code dealing with bicycles also apply to low-speed electric bicycles. Adds a definition for a “low-speed gas bicycle” and treats a low-speed gas bicycle the same as a low-speed electric bicycle in a provision regulating the use of low-speed bicycles and a provision excluding low-speed bicycles from the definition of a motor vehicle. Removes the requirement that a person have a valid current Illinois driver’s license to operate an electric bicycle.
Excerpt from the Public Act
(625 ILCS 5/1-140.10 new)
Sec. 1-140.10. Low-speed electric bicycle. The term “low-speed electric bicycle” has the same meaning ascribed to it by Section 38 of the Consumer Product Safety Act (15 U.S.C. Sec. 2085).
(625 ILCS 5/1-140.15 new)
Sec. 1-140.15. Low-speed gas bicycle. A 2 or 3-wheeled device with fully operable pedals and a gasoline motor of less than one horsepower, whose maximum speed on a paved level surface, when powered solely by such a motor while ridden by an operator who weighs 170 pounds, is less than 20 miles per hour.
(625 ILCS 5/1-146) (from Ch. 95 1/2, par. 1-146)
Sec. 1-146. Motor vehicle. Every vehicle which is self-propelled and every vehicle which is propelled by electric power obtained from overhead trolley wires, but not operated upon rails, except for vehicles moved solely by human power, and motorized wheelchairs, low-speed electric bicycles, and low-speed gas bicycles.

Sec. 11-1516. Low-speed bicycles.
(a) A person may operate a low-speed electric bicycle or low-speed gas bicycle only if the person is at least 16 years of age.
(b) A person may not operate a low-speed electric bicycle or low-speed gas bicycle at a speed greater than 20 miles per hour upon any highway, street, or roadway.
(c) A person may not operate a low-speed electric bicycle or low-speed gas bicycle on a sidewalk.
(d) Except as otherwise provided in this Section, the provisions of this Article XV that apply to bicycles also apply to low-speed electric bicycles and low-apeed gas bicycles.

What You Can Do in Anticipation of Peak Oil

June 4th, 2010

Charles Hugh Smith

What practical arrangements can be made in anticipation of diminishing oil availability?

My esteemed colleague Gib at the Truthalyzer blog recommended that I include a practical guide to action in the next edition of Survival+. I have been mulling how to do this without making an already gargantuan text of 140,000 words into one of unreadable length.

My intent in Survival+ was to offer up the principles of practical action rather than add another checklist to the many good lists already out there.

Nonetheless, I understand the value of filling the gap between principles and practicalities, and so I’m assembling various ways to do so in a few thousand words.

Readers of this blog will get all the practicalities as I work them out.

Practical solutions flow from an integrated understanding. That is one of the principles of the Survival+ critique. If we haven’t thought through the context of the problem(s), then our “solution” will not be very practical, even it may appear so at first blush.

So let’s start with the “big context” of energy. Here is a chart depicting Peak Oil. Note that fossil fuels don’t just suddenly drop to zero; they remain available but in ever-diminishing quantities.

Thus we can expect not a suddenly fossil-fuel-less context but one in which the oil available to be consumed in the U.S. daily drops from the current level of 19 million barrels a day to say, 9 million barrels a day (MBD).

Thus everyone consuming oil will have to get by on less. We can anticipate two consequences:

1. high costs for petroleum and everything made from petroleum

2. rationing, as high prices eliminate many citizenry from the potential pool of buyers.

Many people have quasi-religious views on “market prices” and rationing, and I find these aren’t very helpful or practical. The market will respond to shortages by pushing prices beyond the comfort zone of most consumers–that is the only way to restrict consumption to available supply.

Politically, $10/gallon gasoline will create a “problem” for politicos currently in power, and thus we can safely predict that the Federal government will institute some sort of rationing system.

As noted above, many people have quasi-religious views on rationing, e.g. “it never works.” As a counter-example, we should look at the massive rationing which operated at every level of the U.S. economy in the four years of World War Two. Despite the usual petty profiteering, hoarding, etc. which is to be expected in any rationing scheme, by and large the rationing system “worked” in the sense of distributing essentials in a somewhat equitable fashion.

If we can anticipate both high prices (because we will still live in a quasi-marketquasi-market economy) and rationing (because the high cost/limited availability of gasoline will be politically inconvenient), then we can see the outlines of some practical solutions.

We can anticipate that the Central Government will institute control of the nation’s energy production and imports, with an eye on fueling the U.S. Armed Forces, maintaining civil order and maintaining the agricultural productivity of the nation.

As incompetent, corrupt and venal as our “leaders” of both parties are, the weight of reality will eventually overcome even crass stupidity and bribes and some sort of basic energy triage will be put in place just to ensure people are fed and civil order is maintained.

Thus we can anticipate that the civilian populace will bear the brunt of fuel shortages and/or rationing. So it makes sense to arrange one’s living conditions to prepare for a future in which energy is both limited and costly.

Here are some “obvious” practical responses to such a future:

1. Live as close to work as possible. This would seem a simple step, but in a dynamic labor market beset by high structural unemployment, it may not always be possible. Nonetheless it should be on every “checklist” as a practical response to the coming shortages of transportation fuels.

One way to save on fuel required to commute is to get rid of the commute entirely. My grandparents lived above their paint manufacturing business for years. They “commuted” to work by walking down a flight of stairs. This was once a common way of living.

Hundreds of thousands of Americans are choosing to start land-based businesses (called small farms) which also cut commutes to zero: The latest five-year farm census in 2007 showed nearly 300,000 new farms started since 2002, most of them small.

If one can’t move close to a job, then being self-employed removes the distant job from the equation–presuming one lives in an area where there is a concentration of potential customers, or one works mostly online so the physical locale of the web connection doesn’t matter.

If one can’t be close to work, then perhaps proximity to a job market (i.e. a city or town) is a close second-best choice.

The worst choice is to live in an exurb of McMansions far from any potential work and far from any social-capital centers (towns, farmers markets, libraries, churches, etc.)

2. Own and use low-energy transportation: bicycles, cross-country skiis, electric bikes, low-horsepower motorcycles, boats and snowmobiles, etc. One of my projects this summer is to rehab the household’s numerous bikes which have been given to us or we’ve found abandoned: a small-frame Gary Fisher, a 30-year road bicycle, an old Schwinn, etc. At last count there are seven bicycles around. We usually use only two, but the others will be handy to loan to transportless friends/neighbors.

Bicycles are without doubt the most energy-efficient, amazing machines on the planet. They last almost forever with modest care and can also haul quite a bit of commerce.

Did I mention we ride bikes a lot?

As a good rule of thumb, let’s assume that there will only be gasoline (at any price) for one trip a week into town for shopping/errands, etc. with the outside possibility that it will be more like once a month.

That suggests living some place within easy bicycle/cross-country skiing range of markets/social-capital centers (churches, town hall, neighborhood shopping district, etc.). Five miles each way on a bike is a relatively easy ride, once you work up to a reasonable level of fitness.

Your own calculations of optimal distance from customers/ markets/ social-capital centers will depend on the contexts of weather, age, disabilities, etc.

A six mile/10 kilometer radius is a good starting point for a discussion of low-energy transport.

Just as an aside, snowmobiles and mountain bikes work well on poorly maintained roads. On a bike, you can weave around giant potholes. A mountain bike works well on gravel roads or worse (just watch the turns going downhill on gravel roads).

As Jim KunstlerJim Kunstler noted in a talk he gave awhile back, we can also anticipate a decline in well-maintained roads. So it makes sense to optimize our location/work and transport for this reality.

I recently carried the bumper of a 1998 Honda Civic across town on my bike. I imagine this caused some astonishment or curiosity in passersby, but in Third World countries then this would have been entirely normal. Bike transport makes sense when petrol is unavailable or extremely costly. Some sort of towed cart enables large loads to be transported great distances via bicycle.

3. Fitness and some maintenance skills will come in handy. I am 56 years old, and often ride 10 miles on a bicycle just to clear my head. I am not a marathon athlete or super-duper fitness nut. Yes, it does take some modest effort (see yesterday’s entry Effort Shock, Future Shock and the Promise of Transformation).

Alternatively, one could start acquiring some working knowledge of small motorcycle, outboard and snowmobile engines and various aspects to their maintenance and repair. Learning how to make small engines ‘flex-fuel’ so they run on ethanol/petrol mixes might be a good idea, too (usually just swapping out the plastic fuel line with a stainless steel one).

4. Consider producing some of your own energy and adapting your transport to run on that energy.

I am always surprised to get “hate mail” when I promote the idea of owning your own solar array, be it photovoltaic, solar water heating or concentrated-heat systems which focus the sun’s rays into generating steam.

Recently, a correspondent said I’d been reading too much science fiction, as panels are costly, require cleaning, etc. True enough. But when oil consumption is cut in half, all sorts of hairbrained schemes to gasify coal, etc. will be promoted, and they will all turn out to be very costly and limited in their scalability (i.e. tearing up half of Montana will yield one million barrels a day, max, replacing a mere 10% of what has been lost to global decline of production).

You can of course trust Big Oil and Big Government to “solve” the “energy crisis,” or you can think about reducing your own consumption by half and perhaps investing in your own energy production. A couple of solar panels is enough to charge an electric bike, and when the liquid-fuel vehicles are all sitting around empty because the ration has already been consumed or the gas stations are dry, then an electric bike will be very welcome indeed.

Some commentators believe we can switch to natural gas, which is still relatively abundant in North America. While switching buses and other essential transport to natural gas may be feasible, I see no evidence that we as a nation can swap out 10 million barrels a day of oil consumption with natural gas. Yes, switching might add a million barrels a day, or some other similar number, and that will be welcome.

But the bottom line is there is no way to replace 10 million barrels a day with natural gas, nuclear power (where does all that waste get recycled? We’re still waiting for “solutions” which are scientifically and politically feasible), shale oil, etc.

The fantasy that we can maintain our current levels of energy consumption via the magic of technology is bound to denial like hydrogen is to oxygen in the water molecule. It takes more energy to break that bond than there is in the released hydrogen.

So those bound up in denial and fantasy will be unprepared. That too is “obvious.” Alternatively, we can choose not to indulge in fantasy and denial.